As much as I’d love to talk about surfing, swell directions, or Ojai’s best mountain biking trails, I want to clear the air about something I keep hearing: “There’s a massive housing bubble” or “a huge market correction is coming.” Search that exact language on YouTube and you’ll find a laughable amount of content. And while I don’t have a crystal ball, if you’re waiting for prices to collapse like they did in 2008, that simply isn’t going to happen. However, there’s a “but”.
That doesn’t mean the housing market is without serious challenges right now. The real issue isn’t a bubble — it’s affordability. First-time homebuyers now make up just 24% of the market, an all-time low. Even more scary? The median age of those first-time buyers is 38, an all-time high. 38?! That, my friends, is a problem. Why is this happening? The reasons are complex and many: low inventory, the lasting effects of COVID-era interest rates, a work-from-home culture, inflation—the list goes on. Might also be worth mentioning that the median American home costs ~$416,000, roughly 5-times the median household income of ~$83,000. And that’s the national figure—imagine markets like Manhattan, Santa Barbara, San Francisco, San Diego, or Los Angeles.
All that said, I think one key point comes up, and I get this question all the time: is it a good time to buy? Here’s my honest answer. If I, yes me, were financially ready, I wouldn’t wait another second. That’s not a sales pitch (frankly it would be a terrible one), it’s insight. Yes, the world feels chaotic right now and the path is unclear, but I’m surrounded daily by some of the top real estate experts in the industry (Agents, Economists, Branch Managers). Home prices aren’t going anywhere but up.
And think about what happens when the Fed lowers interest rates? This already started this past week, with another 2 cuts expected by the year-end. All that pent-up demand, buyers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines, are going to rush back into the market. Timing real estate has never worked for anybody ever (some get lucky). It's a long term play, and of course you have to be ready for that. I can admit, I am not! But homeownership is 100% a goal of mine. If you are ready, and you have been waiting for a market correction or big interest rate drop, you will be left in the dust, competing with multiple offers, and as a result likely overpaying in the short term for when the market heats up.
Across the board, the message is consistent: home prices aren’t going down. If you’re ready, cut through the noise and start looking. There are great deals out there.
